Lecture: Palestinian Futures

Even

After a half century, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a cancer of instability undermining efforts to resolve all Mideast problems. Indeed, in view of last summer’s Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the resultant domestic Lebanese political standoff, this spring’s outbreak of fighting in Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps, the Fatah-Hamas street battles this month, the split in the Palestinian government, and Israel’s discriminatory policy toward the two new governing bodies in Palestine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems set to intensify in the near future.

Beneath these surface indicators, things look even worse. Palestine is increasingly beleaguered, walled in, and cut off. Desperation, incompetence, hopelessness, and the shortsighted interference of Palestine’s enemies have combined to split the Palestinian political scene into two groups that appear more intransigent every day, with Israel and Washington actively accelerating this process. Within Palestine, between Palestine and Israel, and more broadly in the region, positions seem to be hardening, and relatively little effort is being made to address the real underlying problems of disenfranchisement, discrimination, humiliation, and poverty. If instability in Palestine is a cancer, it now seems to be metastasizing.

Is this impression accurate?

Could the future unfold differently?

Even a cursory scenario analysis may help to imagine both likely future developments and better outcomes that are possible.